Another war brewing: Ethiopia refuses to back down

In northern Ethiopia, fighters allied with the federal government claimed on Friday that they had captured the town of Milazat, about twenty kilometers from Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, where residents say banks and shops have closed in preparation for approaching fighting. The situation has been further aggravated by Ethiopia's announcement on Thursday that it was closing Eritrea's embassy and expelling ten Eritrean diplomats, prompting Asmara to sever diplomatic relations; the African Union has called on the countries involved to show restraint.

The deterioration in relations marks a particularly sharp turn compared to the 2018 Ethiopian-Eritrean rapprochement, which promised to end two decades of hostility and contributed to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Nobel Peace Prize. Eritrea fought on the side of the federal government in the 2020–2022 Tigray war, but Addis Ababa now accuses it of supporting the anti-government alliance, which Eritrea denies. The deterioration in relations is also linked to Ethiopia's pursuit of access to the Red Sea: the country has had no coastline since Eritrea's independence in 1993, and its leadership treats securing access as an economic and national security necessity, while Asmara warns of the danger of this being forced through by coercion or pressure.

The conflict is also linked to other regional disputes, as Ethiopia likewise accuses Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebels, which both countries deny. Cairo and Addis Ababa have also responded to each other's moves with mutual diplomat expulsions, while their relationship has long been strained by the dispute over the giant Ethiopian dam built on the Nile and over water flow. Neighboring Sudan's own civil war is further increasing instability in the region, so the renewed fighting in Tigray is unfolding in an environment where internal armed conflicts and rivalries between states are becoming increasingly difficult to separate from one another.

Ugar