China's military expansion: the disputed South China Sea again

Advanced construction work is underway on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, where satellite images reviewed by Reuters on Friday show the construction of a large runway. According to analysts, the first aircraft could land there by mid-2027, and the facility could expand the Chinese navy and air force's room for maneuver in the region. Beijing has not acknowledged building a new military base; state media has cited civilian tasks related to weather monitoring and scientific research, while experts studying possible military uses also attribute to the future base a role in protecting the approach routes of Chinese nuclear-powered missile submarines stationed on Hainan.

The CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative program in Washington had already identified earthworks on the reef in August whose size and location suggested preparations for a runway. The strip observed at the time had a width matching those used at other Chinese bases in the South China Sea, and it was the reef's northwestern edge where a roughly three-kilometer straight section could be built. Researchers also detected the foundations of a building comparable in size to the large hangars at other Chinese bases, while the area of artificial land had already approached 590 hectares.

By the time of the August survey, most of the dredging and land reclamation had already been completed, and the concrete plants that had been set up may have been supplying materials for further construction. According to the analysis, new buildings, paved parking areas and green spaces had appeared on the eastern part of the site, which until then had mainly served as a construction outpost — indicating the establishment of a permanent administrative center. The October images show the continuation of this earlier preparatory work; however, the date of completion of the full base and its final military equipment remain unknown.

Ugar