Kim Jong-un mystery: alive or not?

Kim Jong-un has not died, at least according to Pyongyang, which on Tuesday released new photographs of the North Korean leader after rumors of his death spread like wildfire on social media over the weekend. In footage from the state news agency KCNA, Kim is shown visiting a clothing and footwear industry exhibition in Pyongyang on Monday, October 19, accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol-ju, and daughter, Kim Ju-ae. There is still no evidence to support the death rumor, and the denial itself comes from a source with very limited credibility.

The rumor was started on October 18 by Xie Wanjun, the U.S.-based chairman of the China Democracy Party, on X. According to his claim, Kim suffered a severe stroke, fell into a coma, was taken to Peking Union Medical College Hospital in Beijing, died there, and his body was secretly brought back to North Korea. The post claimed that China had sent 9,000 troops to Pyongyang to help Kim's daughter stabilize the regime, and that the Chinese military's Northern Command had been placed on heightened alert. In a later version, it was no longer the daughter but Kim's sister, Kim Yo-jong, who took power. Xie provided no verifiable evidence for any of his claims—no medical documents, no independent sources—and the rumor was accompanied by fabricated images: a memorial photo bearing the inscription “1984–2026,” as well as two supposed Trump posts from Truth Social—according to the fact-checking site MEAWW, both of which were fakes.

The denial also has its weak points. Before the rumor broke, Kim last appeared in public on October 10, at the 81st anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea, and on October 11 he attended, together with his family, the opening of the National Defense Revolutionary Museum, which South Korea's Yonhap reported on October 13. He was then not shown for a week, which in itself is not unusual in North Korea, but the current footage only proves what Pyongyang claims it shows, and this is not the first time North Korean state media has found itself in such a situation. In 2008, when Kim Jong-il disappeared from public view for months after a stroke, Western analysts said that some of the photographs released of him were old or manipulated. His death in December 2011 was also only announced two days later. At the same time, recent history is also a warning against rumors: in the spring of 2020, it was claimed for weeks that Kim had died or was in critical condition, a claim also made by a South Korean lawmaker who had defected from the North. Kim then appeared at a public event, and the lawmaker apologized.

Most of what is known about Kim's health comes from South Korean intelligence. On September 30, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) told the South Korean parliament that Kim weighs around 140 kilograms, putting him at high risk of cardiovascular problems, but that they had seen no sign of serious illness. At a destroyer inspection, for example, he ran up the stairs. Neither Seoul nor Beijing has officially responded to the death rumor, but on Monday a statement appeared in the name of Kim Yo-jong threatening South Korea with military measures, including the resumption of loudspeaker propaganda along the border. The rumors interpreted this too as a sign of a power transfer, even though Kim's sister has been issuing similarly worded statements regularly for years. North Korea has also revealed nothing about succession, and South Korean intelligence itself can only speculate about Kim Ju-ae's role.

The situation, then, is this: there is no evidence for the death rumor, and the only signs of life cannot be independently verified. Probably the most telling evidence will be whether Kim continues to appear regularly in state media in the coming days and weeks, in live or verifiable situations, such as receiving foreign delegations. Until then, the Pyongyang photos and the posts of the dissident in Washington are worth roughly the same—nothing. In any case, we hope the news is true...

Ugar