AfD wins in two states, the Left triumphs in Berlin, big setback for Merz

Of the three state elections held in September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won two. In Saxony-Anhalt it took 43.8 percent of the vote, and in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 38.2 percent. In Berlin, however, the Left party finished first. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's party, the CDU, lost in all three elections, and in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern it failed to enter parliament at all.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern the AfD finished first: according to the not yet final results, it received 38.2 percent of the vote, giving it 32 seats in the 71-member state parliament. The SPD came second with 35.5 percent and 29 seats, while the CDU stayed at 4.9 percent and thus dropped out of the state parliament; the Left and the Greens each won five seats. This also means that the current SPD state premier, Manuela Schwesig, together with the Left and the Greens, can count on a 39-seat majority.

Berlin presents a different picture. In the capital, the Left (Die Linke), led by Elif Eralp, won 25.7 percent of the vote, more than doubling its 2023 result. The governing CDU came second with 18.8 percent, while the AfD rose to third place with 16.3 percent. The Greens received 14.3 percent and the SPD 12.1 percent — the latter being the party's worst-ever result in Berlin. The current CDU-SPD coalition no longer has a majority; Eralp would negotiate with the Greens and the SPD, but her housing program, particularly the plan to bring large private housing companies into public ownership, could become a major point of contention.

The biggest loser is the CDU: Merz himself called the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern result a "catastrophe", but said he would continue his work as chancellor and party leader. The state elections alone will not bring down the federal government, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to claim that Merz's policies so far have held back the AfD. The party came first in the two eastern states and also gained significant ground in Berlin, while the chancellor's party lost its parliamentary representation in one state and its leadership in the other.

In the coming weeks, the question will not only be who forms a government in the three states, but also how long the other parties' ban on cooperation with the AfD can hold. In Saxony-Anhalt, because of the seat distribution, this is already a direct question for government formation; at the national level, however, the state victories do not yet mean that the AfD can produce the next chancellor — that would require the result of a federal election and a governing majority. The current numbers are significant precisely because this possibility can no longer be waved away.

Ugar