Czech intelligence: Russia is getting rougher against NATO member states
In the coming months, Russia may launch riskier, larger-scale operations against NATO member states that support Ukraine, Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), said on Monday at a parliamentary conference on security policy. Koudelka outlined three scenarios.
The first is a sabotage operation on the territory of a NATO member state, targeting a facility linked to aid for Ukraine. The second is a drone or missile strike on a weapons depot intended for Ukraine. The third, in an extreme case, is a limited military action against one of the alliance's neighboring member states. The Czech intelligence chief currently does not consider the latter a direct threat, since Russia has all its forces tied down in Ukraine; he also added that his service has no concrete information about a direct threat to the Czech Republic, but is closely monitoring operations targeting the country and its allies. In his view, the goal of Russian hybrid activity is to weaken NATO's unity.
The Czech warning is not theoretical speculation but a description of the next step in a process already under way. The precursors to what appears in Koudelka's first two scenarios have already occurred: this summer, an explosive-laden drone was found near a military logistics hub in Leipzig linked to Ukraine; a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile flew about a hundred kilometers through Polish airspace before crashing into a field; ammunition factories and warehouses supplying Ukraine, among others, exploded in Bulgaria and Italy; citing five European intelligence services, the Financial Times reported that Moscow is already planning the assassination of executives at European defense companies; and Poland has repeatedly and openly accused Russia of sabotage since the start of the invasion, with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk specifically warning of the danger of drone and missile strikes aimed at allies. Vladimir Putin, by contrast, claimed this month that Russia has no intention whatsoever of attacking any European country and is striving for peaceful coexistence, while Moscow consistently denies any involvement in sabotage operations or hybrid warfare.
As for what European countries can do, U.S. General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, addressed the issue before a European Parliament committee in late September. In his view, the best response is for European states to openly state when Moscow is responsible, while at the same time strengthening their support for Ukraine. Public attribution shows the states backing these actions that the West understands what they are doing, which raises the price they have to pay and is itself a deterrent. The proposal is sound, but not new: European governments have been naming those responsible for attacks for years now - summoning ambassadors, publishing reports, expanding sanctions lists - so the question is whether anything follows the naming. So far, Moscow has learned mostly that attribution rarely carries consequences, and if the Czech intelligence service is reading the coming months correctly, Europe cannot afford to keep going on as it has so far.
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