Moscow's oil and gas revenues surge
Russia's oil and gas tax revenues may rise by 10 percent year-on-year in October, to 1,000 billion rubles, or $11.97 billion – according to calculations by the Reuters news agency. These revenues account for roughly a fifth of Russia's federal budget revenues and play a key role in financing the war against Ukraine, since Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer and exporter after the United States and Saudi Arabia.
The monthly revenue could be more than double that of September, mainly because the quarterly supplementary tax on crude oil extraction falls due in October. Excluding this, revenue could exceed September's figure by about 164 billion rubles, or 36 percent. According to Reuters, the main reason for the increase is the rise in global oil prices caused by supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, although this effect is partly offset by the fact that Russian oil production in the third quarter of 2026 is expected to have been five percent lower than a year earlier.
On an annual basis, the picture is less favorable for the Kremlin: Russia's 2026 budget projects total revenues of 40,283 billion rubles, of which 8,918 billion rubles are expected to come from the oil and gas sector. According to Reuters, oil and gas revenues between January and October amounted to 6,450 billion rubles, 14 percent less than a year earlier. Last year, these revenues fell by 24 percent, to 8,480 billion rubles, the lowest level since 2020.
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