Republican defeat on the horizon: America votes in one week

In the House of Representatives, the Democrats are the favorites, and they could also win a majority in the Senate in the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. A week before the vote, Republicans have reason for concern in both chambers: if they lose control of Congress, Donald Trump will have a much harder time pushing through his agenda in the next two years of his presidency.

This time, American voters are not electing a president, but they will decide whether the Republican congressional majority remains behind Trump, or whether the Democrats can form a counterweight to him. According to an ABC News analysis, compared to the balance of power established in the last election, Democrats need to net three seats in the House and four in the Senate to win a majority, and based on forecasts, they have a much better chance of winning the lower chamber, though the race for the Senate is also open.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election, with members elected for two-year terms. Republican Speaker Mike Johnson is already working with an extremely narrow majority: alongside 218 Republicans, California's Kevin Kiley also supports the caucus, even though he left the party in March. Kiley explained his decision by citing the Democratic-led redistricting of California, but he remained with the Republican caucus, allowing him to keep his committee seats. In the November election, at least 218 seats are needed for a majority. According to the Cook Political Report's assessment, Democrats are already considered favorites in enough districts to secure that number on their own, while Republicans are counting on 198 seats that seem safe — which, while not yet an election result, clearly shows how little margin Johnson's party has left. The Decision Desk HQ model from October 26 gave Democrats a 79 percent chance of winning a majority, projecting 238 seats for them. Among the races expected to be especially close are Ohio's 7th, Iowa's 2nd, Texas's 15th, and Maine's 2nd congressional districts.

Republicans are trying to win over undecided voters with the legislative achievements of the past two years. The centerpiece of their campaign is Trump's package, which he calls 'one big, beautiful bill,' promoted as a tax cut for working families. The other side of their campaign is scaremongering about the left. Republicans warn of the danger of 'Mamdani madness,' referring to New York's democratic socialist mayor, Zohran Mamdani, and similarly oriented candidates who won Democratic primaries this year. Democrats have also made the cost of living the centerpiece of their campaign, but they link it to promises of fighting corruption, directly attacking Trump. Their House leader, Brooklyn's Hakeem Jeffries, says Americans have had enough, and that his party is on track to win the majority. If they win, Jeffries could become the first Black Speaker of the House in U.S. history.

In the Senate, the Democrats' task is harder. Republicans currently hold 53 seats, against 45 Democrats and two independent senators who caucus with them. Republican Majority Leader John Thune could therefore retain control even after losing three seats: in a resulting 50–50 split, Vice President JD Vance's vote could tip the balance in Republicans' favor. Chuck Schumer's Democrats therefore need to gain at least four seats, while also defending their own vulnerable seats. Of the one hundred Senate seats, 35 are up for a vote this time, 22 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Democrats a 57 percent chance of winning a majority, projecting 51 seats for them — a significantly less certain race than the same model shows for the House.

One of the most important states is North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley. CNN ranked this race at the top of its list of Senate seats most likely to flip parties. In Maine, the contest between Republican Susan Collins and her Democratic challenger, Troy Jackson, is also close: the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Jackson with a 1.4-percentage-point lead. In Michigan, however, the Democratic Party must defend a seat it currently holds. Abdul El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers; in CNN's polling average, El-Sayed stands at 49 percent and Rogers at 47 percent. The importance of the state was underscored by the fact that both Barack Obama and Donald Trump campaigned there in person over the weekend on behalf of their respective parties' candidates. A week before the election, then, Republicans need to turn around an unfavorable race in the House, while in the Senate the results in a handful of states could determine control. For Democrats, winning even one chamber would give them the power to curb Trump's legislative plans and subject his administration to stricter oversight. If they won both, the president would face significantly stronger congressional resistance than he does now.

Ugar