Trump talks of a grand bargain with Moscow

According to Donald Trump, the “very big agreement” to be reached with Russia could extend to the whole of Europe. In a commentary for the Polish outlet Onet, Witold Jurasz explores what this could mean for NATO's eastern flank. The “spirit of Anchorage” invoked in Moscow after the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska reminds Jurasz of Yalta. He believes that back then, too, Washington and Moscow tried to force Ukraine into capitulation, but neither Kyiv nor its European partners went along with it.

According to Jurasz, scaling back NATO's military presence to 1997 levels is hardly realistic, but Washington could, on its own authority, withdraw or reduce the American forces sent to Poland after Russia's 2022 invasion, which would once again turn Poland into a second-rate NATO member. A diplomat quoted by Onet sees this fear as the explanation for why people close to the Polish president are now pressing the government to negotiate more forcefully for a permanent American base. At the end of his commentary, Jurasz also raises the question of who would actually benefit from such a bargain. In his view, the United States would weaken its own security and international standing, while businessmen tied to Trump could gain access to billion-dollar opportunities in Russia. Seen from this angle, for Warsaw it would already be the better scenario if Trump were simply talking into thin air.

Source: News from Poland