From a country without cards to a tough opponent: Trump's angry demands prove Ukraine's strength

Ukraine's series of strikes on Russian refineries now gives Kyiv a greater bargaining advantage than anything it had a year ago, when Donald Trump was still mocking Volodymyr Zelensky by saying he “doesn't have the cards” against Russia. According to an analysis by Politico, this has become an increasingly serious problem for the American president. “In less than two years, we've gone from having no cards to being told now not to play them. That's a real achievement,” said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha before the audience at the Warsaw Security Forum, drawing loud applause.

Trump, who in the 2025 Oval Office scene publicly humiliated Zelensky by telling him he had no cards, is now demanding that he “damn well stop” attacking Russian refineries, and expects Ukraine to designate a new leader — which, according to Politico, actually proves that Kyiv now has a serious advantage in this struggle.

Ukrainian strikes are causing increasingly severe fuel shortages across Russia and undermining the Kremlin's ability to finance the war. European leaders, however, fear that Trump's desperate attempt — to push down fuel prices ahead of November's midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv — could weaken Ukraine's position without forcing Russia to end the war. The dispute between Washington and Kyiv overshadowed the traditionally strongly pro-American Warsaw forum, hosted by a country that is one of the United States' most important allies. A French member of parliament, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that ministers and heads of state do not openly say what they think about the Americans, but they would have a great deal to say, and that the negotiations with Putin represent yet another stab in the back for the Ukrainians.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski summed up in a single sentence what much of Europe thinks: a war can be ended by convincing the aggressor to limit its ambitions, not by demanding the victim's capitulation. According to Sikorski, Ukraine is effectively striking both refineries and Russian data centers, and he also called on Polish President Karol Nawrocki, a supporter of the MAGA movement, to use his influence with Trump and explain to him that Putin is the aggressor and Zelensky is the victim of aggression.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Berlin is trying to persuade the Trump administration to fully implement the energy sanctions approved by the U.S. Congress. On September 18, Trump signed the 2026 sanctions law against Russia and Iran named after Lindsey O. Graham, which codifies existing U.S. sanctions and expands secondary sanctions, tariffs and restrictions, including on the energy sector — and then, three weeks later, suspended sanctions on Russian diesel.

— said Wadephul. The German minister also said that last month, at the UN General Assembly in New York, he spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and saw no interest whatsoever on his part in ending the war. He said that in Europe, especially in Germany, many had asked why there was no dialogue with the Russians; now that conversation has taken place, and the outcome is “very dark”: Russia is currently not ready for a ceasefire.

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy…

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