German fears: Washington takes offense if weapons are bought elsewhere

According to the German defense ministry, Berlin could jeopardize both its relations with the United States and its own defense industry orders if it weans itself off American weapons too quickly. Meanwhile, Washington is already notifying its European allies of delays in deliveries that have long been contracted, and Ukraine is waiting for Patriot missiles for which its partners have already paid. Berlin now has to calculate how long it remains more costly to offend the supplier than to continue depending on it.

The internal assessment obtained by POLITICO was prepared for the November 4 session of the Bundestag's defense committee, at which American–German military cooperation was discussed. According to the ministry, Washington already looks unfavorably on Berlin even talking publicly about independence in arms procurement, and a rapid change of course could endanger the participation of German companies in American weapons programs. The F-35 fighter jet is a good example of why this is more than just a shopping list. Germany is a buyer, but at the same time Rheinmetall manufactures the center fuselage section of the aircraft in Weeze, Germany, on behalf of the American company Northrop Grumman. So the American link is present even inside the German factory, while the Bundeswehr, besides the F-35s, is also buying Chinook transport helicopters and Patriot air defense systems from the United States.

According to SIPRI, between 2021 and 2025 the United States accounted for 37 percent of the volume of Germany's major arms imports. The European Commission wants member states to spend at least half of their defense procurement budgets on products made in Europe by 2030, but that would require manufacturing enough of the equipment that is already needed now. Because of the war with Iran, Washington has warned several European countries that already contracted deliveries may be delayed; Volodymyr Zelensky said in October that the Pentagon is also delaying the handover of missiles intended for Ukraine that its allies have already paid for. Marco Rubio admitted that deliveries of Patriot interceptor missiles could slip, but said the United States must first ensure that enough missiles remain to defend its own bases.

Berlin already went through what this dependency means last spring for a piece of equipment that is bought once and then has to remain in service for decades, when a dispute arose over the alleged remote kill switch on the F-35s. The Pentagon denied that such a switch exists, but spare parts, software updates and data links are very real issues. In May of this year, when the Pentagon announced it would withdraw about five thousand troops from Germany, the deployment of the American Tomahawk battalion planned under Biden also became uncertain. In July, Friedrich Merz already spoke of Germany buying American Tomahawks itself, along with launchers for them, so that the missiles could end up in German hands — though the purchase would still require Washington's approval.

In Ukraine, the lesson in October was far more tangible. Because of a speed limit introduced on Starshield, the military version of Starlink, fast-moving terminals lost connection, which also made it harder to intercept some Russian attack drones. Kyiv announced on October 24 that the service had been restored, but reports still differ on who ordered the restriction. In Berlin it is understandable that no one wants to untangle, in a single week, defense-industry ties that have grown together over decades — yet with every new procurement it would be worth noting, alongside the purchase price, who will send the spare part, who will provide the update, and who will decide whether the next missile shipment arrives. The Ukrainians have already had to ask themselves these questions in the middle of an attack.

Ugar