Trump stabs Ukraine in the back, then seeks Putin's approval

On Tuesday, October 20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed security guarantees for Ukraine with US special envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo, while Kyiv has to face the fact that Washington is also making uncertain the cooperation needed for its current defense. After the meeting, Zelensky said that the various versions of the guarantees had been compiled into a single document, which Witkoff would share with the Russian leadership. The American envoy, on Wednesday, that is, arrived in Saint Petersburg today, to hold talks with Vladimir Putin, and according to plans he will return to Oslo for further consultations after the talks in Russia. In other words: the opinion of the very aggressor from which Ukraine needs to be protected is now being sought on Ukraine's future defense guarantees.

The Oslo talks were also attended by Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, while Jared Kushner joined remotely. After the meeting, the Norwegian and Finnish leaders held a joint press conference with Zelensky, but Witkoff no longer appeared at it. When a journalist asked Støre about his absence, the prime minister replied that this was a press conference for political leaders. Why Witkoff actually stayed away was not clarified, but in any case he avoided the awkward questions—such as how Washington can offer credible guarantees for the future while, according to Kyiv, it is also holding up the delivery of already-paid-for air defense missiles. According to Zelensky's account, the talks also touched on Ukraine's NATO membership, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense, and security guarantees that could be modeled on it. The Ukrainian president thanked the American side for reiterating that the guarantees would be strong. He said the document containing the various options would be presented by Witkoff to the Russians, and that Moscow's response could be known within two days—an expectation that seems optimistic on Zelensky's part, as his account did not mention any deadline the Russian side had committed to for a reply.

Behind the diplomatic courtesy, however, lies a question that is hard to avoid: how much is a guarantee from Trump worth if the American president is weakening Ukraine's position precisely when it needs predictable support the most? He is expanding the aggressor's economic room for maneuver, publicly attacking the leader of the invaded country, and at the same time expecting Kyiv to trust the next American promise. For Ukrainians, this stab in the back is a very practical matter: will the interceptor missile arrive, will the military satellite link work, will the warning about the next Russian ballistic missile come in time? And right now the answer to all of these is NO... On Tuesday, during his trip to Oslo, Zelensky discussed exactly these issues on the phone with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio: the functioning of Starlink, air defense interceptor missiles, and intelligence support, and at the press conference he also confirmed that the American early warning system for Russian ballistic missile attacks was working again. This was announced now as an achievement, even though it should be self-evident cooperation in the middle of a war: it concerns information without which the Ukrainian population and air defense lose vitally important time—and "vital" should be understood quite literally here.

Kyiv continues to support the American initiative for an energy ceasefire: it is ready to refrain from striking sensitive Russian energy facilities if Russia also stops bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure, but Putin rejected this proposal, and Russian strikes have continued. Ukraine is also pushing for a trilateral Zelensky–Trump–Putin meeting, at which the leaders could directly discuss territorial issues and the conditions for ending the war. Kyiv, too, is seeking an agreement, but it insists on reciprocity: while Ukrainian power plants are being bombed, the facilities serving Russia's war economy should not be left to operate unpunished.

According to a Bloomberg report from Tuesday, senior NATO officials fear that the relationship between Donald Trump and Zelensky could deteriorate to the point where restoring cooperation would become very difficult, which could further weaken Ukraine's position and force Kyiv to accept painful settlement terms. According to Glavred , which reported on Bloomberg's account, NATO representatives have therefore asked the Ukrainian side to ease the tension that has arisen with Washington, because the American arms deliveries financed by European allies could also be put at risk. In the end, then, the invaded country also has to take care not to offend the American president who does business with the aggressor while holding Kyiv responsible for the lack of peace—if nothing else, this, like a drop showing the sea, reveals the complete impotence of Western civilization, one that deserves to be written into the history books. And alongside the concessions to Moscow, Trump regularly adds public humiliation aimed at Kyiv: in his view, Ukraine has received a great deal but given nothing in return, while Russia is advancing like a huge machine, so it is time for the Ukrainians to make a deal. Instead of the Russian attacks, it is Ukrainian resistance that keeps being put in the dock, as if the war were dragging on because the invaded country still refuses to hand over its land with sufficient enthusiasm.

The most serious element of the pressure campaign, however, is the one that directly affects Ukraine's defense. According to Ukrainian officials quoted by the Kyiv Independent, the delivery of a significant shipment of Patriot interceptor missiles, already paid for by the allies, is also being delayed because US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has not yet approved it. Kyiv suspects a political decision lies behind the delay; the American side disputes this. Rubio admitted the possibility of a delay but denied any political motive; meanwhile, according to NATO officials, other deliveries under the PURL program, including air defense equipment, continue to arrive. For the Ukrainians waiting for this specific shipment, however, the distinction is hardly reassuring: a Russian missile will not wait for Hegseth to find a pen.

Given Trump's actions so far, it is hard to call reassuring the guarantees Witkoff is now taking to Saint Petersburg. The whole process gives the impression that Ukraine's defense needs to be approved by Putin, while Washington is already making it clear in advance that it will primarily blame Kyiv if no agreement is reached. On Monday, the American president claimed that Kyiv should find a new negotiator—on the very same day that a Russian drone strike killed six people, including two children, in a park in Ukraine, yet the orange-haired idiot was busy with replacing Ukraine's representation instead: he treated the sovereignty of the invaded country with roughly the same respect we have come to expect from Moscow. After all this, Kyiv is supposed to believe that Washington will consistently stand up for that very same sovereignty the next time Russia attacks.

The next question is how Moscow will respond to the proposals, and based on the positions so far it is hard to be optimistic: Putin continues to demand that Ukraine withdraw from the parts of Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control, which Kyiv rejects; the Ukrainian side instead wants the fighting stopped along the current front line. Ceding territory is thus very much part of Russia's demands; the question is how much of this Washington will make its own, and how far it is willing to go to get Ukraine to accept it. It is conceivable that it is precisely because the two sides' positions are so far apart that several versions of the security guarantees were included in the document: if Moscow rejects the stronger one, Washington could offer the weaker one. And if the price of the guarantees ultimately turns out to be the Donbas, Kyiv could find itself facing a deal in which the aggressor gets territory and the victim gets a promise. And even then, Ukraine and the civilized part of Europe could be glad if Trump and Putin Ltd. do not come up with further territorial demands.

The credibility of such a promise, however, has already been undermined by the American president. Trump is offering protection for the future to a country whose bargaining position he is weakening in the present, while helping the aggressor with economic relief. That is why the real test of the Oslo guarantees raises questions even before any paper is signed: will the weapons needed to defend Ukrainian cities today actually arrive, and is Washington willing to put pressure on Putin as well? As long as Kyiv has to fear losing support and Moscow can hope for further concessions, American peace mediation will remain a knife turned in Ukraine's back.

Ugar