First the election, then Iran: Washington may be preparing new strikes

The United States has warned several Gulf Arab states, through diplomatic and military channels, to prepare for a "short but intense" campaign against Iran after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. According to the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision, but is leaning toward a large-scale strike that would also target Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

Citing sources, the newspaper reported on the warnings, writing that Washington is already preparing its partners in the region for a possible resumption of fighting. The military preparations include the deployment of a Patriot air defense system redeployed from Texas, the replenishment of ammunition stockpiles, and the readying of bombers and fighter jets, while American troops are being moved out of bases where they would be particularly vulnerable. According to Anadolu, which reported on the information, these steps point to preparations for a new series of U.S.–Israeli strikes. The White House did not confirm specific plans, stating instead that it does not comment on sensitive military concepts that "may or may not exist," adding that Trump is keeping all options open to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. According to the WSJ, a negotiated agreement remains a possibility alongside military action, meaning the preparations alone do not indicate that the president has given the order to strike. Meanwhile, Trump has also hinted on the campaign trail that new developments are expected after the election. Speaking in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, he said that "in a few weeks, they'll see what happens with Iran," before once again praising American military successes and claiming that he will end the conflict whenever he wants.

In the November 3 vote, the Republicans' congressional majority could also be at risk, and in the days before the election the president is simultaneously talking about ending the conflict soon and about the possibility of further military action. For now, he bridges the gap between the two by saying that Tehran will either reach an agreement or face new strikes — strikes that Washington has already deemed necessary to warn neighboring states about in advance. The phrase "short but intense" is, in any case, Washington's own description of the planned campaign, and it does not necessarily follow that the retaliatory strikes and the regional consequences would stay within that time frame as well. The Gulf states need to prepare precisely because the risks of a new round of strikes against Iran would hardly stop at Iran's borders.

Ugar