Trump would reconnect Europe to Russian gas

In 2018, he was still scolding Germany for relying on American military protection against Russia while funneling billions to Moscow through its energy purchases, but now his negotiators have raised the idea of reviving Russian gas sales to Europe, and even restoring Nord Stream, as an economic incentive for a war settlement.

According to reports attributed to The Economist, Washington is trying to make it worthwhile for Russia to end the war through an agreement that would offer Moscow deals with American companies, an easing of sanctions and a normalization of political relations. This package reportedly includes restarting European gas deliveries and resuming use of the Nord Stream pipeline system — in other words, the possibility that Russia would regain one of its most important sources of revenue and one of its most effective tools of influence in Europe. According to the reports, Ukraine would be offered an investment package and the prospect of European Union membership in exchange for giving up its NATO aspirations, while a demilitarized zone would be set up in the Donets Basin. Ukrainska Pravda, summarizing The Economist's report, also notes that Washington cannot unilaterally decide to open up the European gas market — a particularly notable detail in a diplomatic effort that offers Ukraine EU membership and Russia European buyers. Fulfilling both promises would also require a decision by the Europeans, whose role in this business scheme currently looks strikingly similar to that of a customer waiting at the checkout. Others design the deal, Europe will foot the bill, and in the meantime it can hope that this time it won't turn into another round of energy blackmail.

An investigation published by Le Monde on October 27 also reported on a specific meeting in Florida, at which Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly proposed to the Ukrainian delegation that Russian oil and gas transit through Ukraine be restored. According to the paper, the idea was presented at the October 9 meeting at the Shell Bay Golf Club as part of postwar economic cooperation, promising Ukraine transit revenues and Europe more favorable energy prices. However, the details of the alleged exchange at the meeting were denied on October 28 by Kyrylo Budanov. The head of the Ukrainian presidential office told RBC-Ukraine that the insider reports circulating about the talks were false, and warned of information attacks aimed at the negotiation process.

Fortunately, Trump's earlier position does not need to be reconstructed from the memory of anonymous negotiators, since it is preserved in the White House's official archives. At the NATO summit on July 11, 2018, he criticized Germany for striking major oil and gas deals with Russia while expecting protection from its allies against that same country. He argued that by buying energy, the Europeans were enriching Moscow, and he called Germany a captive of Russian energy. The gist of that argument back then is hard to misread: if the Europeans consider Russia a security threat, why are they financing the Russian state at the same time? The question became even more pressing after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet the American plans now being reported could bring back exactly the kind of dependence that Trump once held against his allies.

There are also technical and political obstacles surrounding Nord Stream that a business proposal made at a golf club in Florida does not simply make disappear. In 2022, Russia first reduced and then completely halted gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1, and the pipeline system was later hit by a serious accident caused by an explosion. Nord Stream 2 never entered commercial operation because of the invasion, so in its case the term "restart" means something quite different than it does for the pipelines that were previously in operation. In any case, a return could bring Moscow substantial economic gains, while Europe would once again have to weigh what security price it is paying for energy promised to be cheap.

Ugar