Russian drone attack: CIA warned three European states

According to El Mundo, American intelligence has warned several European governments that Russia could launch an attack on Spain, France or Italy using drones deployed from commercial ships. So far, however, neither the CIA nor the states involved have officially confirmed the report, and Italy's defense minister has stated that Rome has not received any such warning.

Citing anonymous diplomatic and intelligence sources, the Spanish newspaper wrote that, according to American services, Moscow could hide Gerbera-type drones in the containers of commercial vessels and then launch them from the Mediterranean Sea against a target in southern or western Europe. The information reportedly reached European governments shortly after CIA Director John Ratcliffe's unusual visit to Moscow on August 25. According to El Mundo, several European intelligence services were later briefed on Ratcliffe's talks in Moscow. The newspaper's sources say that France, Spain and Italy were all named among the possible targets; elections are scheduled to be held in all three countries in 2027, and a limited but spectacular attack could be well suited to heightening public fear, exploiting fatigue over support for Ukraine, and strengthening pro-Russian political forces.

Why could the Gerbera be dangerous?

The Gerbera is a smaller, simpler Russian variant of the Iranian-origin Shahed drone. It is about two meters long, has a wingspan of roughly 2.5 meters, weighs up to 18 kilograms, can reach speeds of up to 160 kilometers per hour, and, depending on payload and flight conditions, has a range of up to 600 kilometers.

Because of its size, several such devices could be hidden in a single shipping container, and the drones could be assembled and prepared for launch on deck. If a ship launched them 200–300 kilometers from the coast, the drones could reach land in under two hours. A four-to-five-kilogram explosive charge would not be enough to destroy a major port, airport or power plant, but that would not necessarily be the goal. A few drones could start fires, damage equipment left in the open, shut down an airport or port for hours or days, or test the response time of air defenses. A cheap attack could thus have disproportionately large economic and political consequences, while Moscow could deny involvement as usual. Launching from the sea would also make it harder to detect the drones in time or to immediately determine their point of origin. A commercial ship, moreover, could get much closer to the target than a Russian military aircraft or warship, meaning the drone would have to travel a shorter route, leaving less time for interception.

France has publicly confirmed that it expects the Russian hybrid threat to intensify. On September 18, Emmanuel Macron held an extraordinary meeting with the leaders of French parties and potential candidates for the 2027 presidential election in the crisis room of the Élysée Palace. After the meeting, the French president stated that the Russian hybrid threat to Europe, and especially to France, has intensified in recent weeks. Macron instructed the government to draw up a plan to protect critical infrastructure and defense industry facilities from drone and cyberattacks. He said Moscow's goal is to intimidate European societies and weaken support for Ukraine. The French measures are likely not based solely on a secret American report. In recent months, several European countries have experienced drone incidents, sabotage operations and cyberattacks that authorities or intelligence services have linked to Russia. The German government attributed the drone operation against Leipzig airport to Moscow, and the United States' NATO ambassador warned as early as the beginning of September that such actions should not be treated as simple airspace violations or accidental incidents.

Poland has also received an American warning about a possible Russian operation. According to Poland's Newsweek, the attack could target Baltic Sea telecommunications cables and the banking system that relies on them. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk previously said he had received detailed briefings directly from the CIA director about provocations expected in the coming months. This method of attack, however, is militarily feasible, fits the pattern already established by Russian hybrid operations, and would serve precisely the goal Moscow has long pursued in Europe: to sow great fear at little cost, test NATO's reaction, and then turn the resulting uncertainty against support for Ukraine.

Ugar