The Balkan 0rbán has fallen: the Students' List can form a government alone in Serbia

Aleksandar Vučić admitted on Sunday evening that his party had lost Serbia's early parliamentary election. The Students' List (officially called "Students Win"), which grew out of nearly two years of student protests following the Novi Sad railway station tragedy, won a majority. According to an estimate by Ipsos and CeSID based on a 96 percent sample, the list won 52.9 percent of the vote and will take 140 seats in the 250-member National Assembly, well above the 126 needed to govern. Vučić's list, called United Serbia, would receive 38.8 percent and 103 seats.

Vučić announced around 9:30 p.m. at the headquarters of the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) that they had lost the election, but at the same time tried to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the winners: he called the result the outcome of foreign interference and claimed that the student movement had come to power with foreign backing. He said the new leadership would introduce sanctions against Russia by March or April, adding that his party would not legally challenge the result, would remain in opposition, did not want unrest, and would protect its supporters from any possible reprisals.

After processing 91.53 percent of polling stations, the Republic Election Commission (RIK) recorded 1,976,861 votes (51.64 percent) for the Students' List and 1,527,150 votes (39.90 percent) for Vučić's list. Ivica Dačić's Socialist Party stood at 2.24 percent, remaining below the three-percent threshold. Among the minority lists exempted from the threshold, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (VMSZ) won 34,211 votes, or 0.89 percent, and can expect three seats, the Albanian coalition two, and the Bosniak parties of Sandžak one each.

According to the RIK, turnout already stood at 64.9 percent at 6 p.m. on election day, the highest since the breakup of the Yugoslav state in 1992. Long lines formed outside polling stations, and in several places voting continued even after the official closing time. The election monitoring organization CRTA reported that in nearly a third of the roughly 500 polling stations it observed, there was pressure on voters or commission members. According to the organization's report, ballots were photographed in 48 percent of polling stations, UV-lamp checks were skipped in 30 percent, and in 8 percent people voted without valid identification. By 5 p.m., CeSID had recorded about 260 possible irregularities; journalists were assaulted in Pavlovac and Vranje, and a ballot box was smashed in Leskovac. Police prepared for dispersal stood near the Belgrade election commission's headquarters, while the European Union's delegation to Serbia said it was "deeply concerned" about the violent incidents; the students repeatedly urged their supporters to stay calm throughout the evening.

The movement was triggered by the November 2024 tragedy at the Novi Sad railway station, when the collapse of the building's canopy killed sixteen people. The protests demanding accountability grew into a nationwide movement that took aim at corruption and abuse of power. Vučić, running as the prime ministerial candidate, resigned as head of state on September 27; parliamentary speaker Ana Brnabić took over the interim presidential duties the next day, and a new president must be elected by the end of the year.

Among the Students' List's 250 candidates were doctors, teachers and farmers, including many people with no prior political experience. The list is led by Ilija Srdanović. Radomir Saičić, one of the list's candidates and a university lecturer in Belgrade, said while awaiting results: "serious work and the building of a new Serbia begins tomorrow." The movement has not named an official prime ministerial candidate, but economist Dejan Šoškić, a former governor of the Serbian central bank, is mentioned as one of the most likely options. In an election-night interview with 444, Šoškić named auditing the budget, state companies, local governments and the province's finances as the first task, and said he would leave the question of EU accession to a referendum. Šoškić said Hungary's change in April had also given them momentum, and that the mood in Serbia had been similar to that before the Hungarian election, although he sees the Vučić system as harsher and more flagrant in its violations of constitutional limits. The direction of foreign policy remains an open question: Vučić maintained ties with both Moscow and Beijing while at the same time proclaiming support for EU accession.

Prime Minister Péter Magyar called the leaders of the list on Sunday evening to congratulate them, assuring them of his support; according to him, his interlocutors said that Hungary's April election result had given them strength. Euronews called this symbolic, not least because the previous Hungarian government had maintained close political alignment with Vučić. European Council President António Costa, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos also offered congratulations and promised support in the areas of the rule of law, press freedom, the fight against corruption and Serbia's path toward EU membership. Romanian President Nicușor Dan said on Monday that Romania was ready to work with the new government for Serbia's European path and the stability of the region. The White House did not react immediately, while Republican Representative Joe Wilson welcomed the result and urged a reduction in dependence on Russian energy.

In Belgrade and other cities, music, dancing, singing, fireworks and honking horns greeted Vučić's announcement; most of the crowd was young, and the celebrations lasted until dawn. The pro-Vučić camp set up in Belgrade's Pionirski Park was dismantled during the evening. There is as yet no timetable for forming a government, and the date of the constitutive session has not been announced.

Ugar