Mossad chief in Washington, Netanyahu wants another war against Iran

Roman Gofman, the head of Israeli intelligence, held talks in Washington on Friday about the situation regarding Iran, while Benjamin Netanyahu is working to get Donald Trump to launch another large-scale military strike on Tehran. According to Axios sources, the American president has so far resisted the pressure, but anyone who has followed his statements in recent months hardly needs reminding how quickly Trump's position on a war can change — especially if someone manages to convince him that victory is already practically in hand.

Gofman met with CIA Director John Ratcliffe in the American capital, and according to one Axios source, he may also travel on to Miami to meet White House special envoy Steve Witkoff. Three sources familiar with the matter spoke to the American outlet about the visit, while the Mossad, the CIA and the White House all declined to comment. Netanyahu and Trump also spoke by phone about Iran on November 5. According to an American official, the Israeli prime minister is pushing for a resumption of hostilities, while Trump, for now, would rather continue the naval blockade and economic pressure while trying to assess whether some kind of deal with Tehran is possible. On Thursday the president said that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also favor waiting.

Trump also assured his audience that he could end the situation quickly if he wanted to, but at the request of the Gulf states he is now choosing the slower and, in his words, "more civilized" path. Meanwhile, American warships remain stationed off Iran's coast, sanctions are in effect, and U.S. forces in the region are ready for further action if needed. According to the Associated Press, since the midterm elections the president has sent conflicting signals about whether he considers further strikes necessary, or whether he even still wants a deal with Iran.

Time is running out for Netanyahu, meanwhile, as his bloc lost its parliamentary majority in the October 27 election, and his rival, Gadi Eisenkot, has been tasked with forming a new government. If he succeeds, Netanyahu will have to step down, and the Israeli opposition fears that the caretaker prime minister could complicate the process of forming a government by launching a strike on Iran or provoking another Iranian retaliatory attack. A source close to Eisenkot told the outlet that, under the current circumstances, the politician does not consider another strike urgent. On Thursday, Netanyahu briefed Eisenkot on the security situation regarding Iran for about two hours, but according to Israel's Channel 12, he did not mention the Mossad chief's trip to the United States. According to press reports cited by The Times of Israel, there is also no consensus within the Israeli military leadership on an immediate strike. According to Channel 12, Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir considers the Iranian threat to be real but does not see the kind of urgency that would justify a strike during the government-formation period.

Will the Ukrainians drive up oil prices again?

The consequences of another strike would be felt far beyond the Persian Gulf, since a significant share of the world's oil and natural gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and even the mere threat of renewed armed conflict can already show up in prices. How much prices would actually rise after an actual strike would depend on whether extraction or transport facilities were damaged and how badly shipping was disrupted. Former Mossad director David Barnea himself warned of this in recent days. In his view, another war against Iran would have serious consequences for the global economy and the energy market, which is why he currently considers continuing the blockade to be the more sensible approach. Meanwhile, according to The Wall Street Journal's Friday market summary, oil prices fell overall this week, even though uncertainty in the Middle East continues to weigh on traders' minds.

Trump already has another explanation for high fuel prices, one in which Ukrainians feature far more prominently than any U.S.-Iran war. In recent weeks he has repeatedly accused Kyiv of driving up prices with strikes on Russian refineries, and has tried to persuade Zelensky to halt these attacks. According to analysts interviewed by AFP in October, Ukrainian drone strikes do affect the fuel market, but the main driver of the price increase was the war between the United States and Iran. For now there is no indication that Trump has decided on another strike, but according to Axios, Netanyahu's intentions are clear, and the head of the Mossad is holding talks in Washington at precisely the moment when the Israeli prime minister may be running out of time to convince the American president. And if the planes do eventually take off again and oil prices spike once more, it will be interesting to see how many sentences it takes before Ukrainian refinery strikes come up again.

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