Trump's team lost, but the president stays - what comes next?

The Democrats have won both the House of Representatives and the Senate, meaning that in the last two years of Donald Trump's second presidential term he will face a Congress that can launch investigations against him, reject his nominees, and deny the new funding his policies require. Party leaders have left the possibility of impeachment open, but removing the president takes more than an election victory alone — Republican senators would also have to turn against Trump. For Ukraine, the result could matter even sooner, since from January supporters of aid and of taking action against Russia will be able to set the congressional agenda, while the White House will have to account for how it carries out their decisions in far more detail than before.

According to reports on November 4, the Democrats have secured at least 54 Senate seats, with no winner yet declared in two states, so their majority could still grow. In the House of Representatives they have likewise secured the number of seats needed for a majority, though the final breakdown is still taking shape. Even at the current count, this is a far stronger position than if they had won only one chamber, but they will have to wait until January for the actual transfer of power, since the terms of the new representatives and senators begin on January 3, 2027; until then the Republicans will lead both chambers and will still have a say in what kind of budget deal the next Congress inherits. According to Reuters, one such decision still ahead of them concerns funding for the federal government after December.

Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the House Democrats, who could become the first Black Speaker of the House in January, has already signaled what kind of relationship he is preparing for: "we don't work for Donald Trump," he said after the election, while Robert Garcia, who is expected to chair the House Oversight Committee, sent an even shorter message to the administration and its allies: "lawyer up." Along with the majority, Democrats will gain committee chairmanships, a larger investigative apparatus and subpoena power, so letters that recipients could simply leave unanswered over the past two years may, from January, turn into official subpoenas demanding documents and testimony. Planned investigations include the Trump family's businesses, the handling of the Epstein files, the actions of immigration authorities, as well as the Pentagon's operations and the launch of the war with Iran.

These investigations could have serious consequences even if none of the proceedings lead to Trump's removal. At a public hearing, a cabinet secretary, an agency head or a businessman benefiting from a contract must answer specific questions, and the committee can compare the answer with documents it has obtained; the White House, however, can withhold certain documents, invoke executive privilege, and take the dispute to court, which could drag out the fact-finding process for months. Enforcing a congressional subpoena is especially difficult when the Justice Department would have to act against a member of its own administration, so Democrats are expected to use hearings, court proceedings and budget negotiations simultaneously, since an election victory alone does not guarantee access to the documents.

On the question of impeachment, less can be said with certainty for now. Before the election, Jeffries said that nothing is ruled out, while Jamie Raskin, the presumptive chair of the Judiciary Committee, listed impeachment among the constitutional tools at their disposal, adding that its political and institutional costs must also be weighed. The House can impeach the president by a simple majority, but only the Senate can remove him from office, where conviction requires a two-thirds vote of the senators present. With full attendance that means 67 votes, so alongside 54 Democratic senators, at least 13 Republicans would need to support it, and even a 56-strong Democratic majority would still need 11 Republicans. The Democrats can therefore push an impeachment through on their own, but removing Trump would depend on whether they uncover a case serious enough to break his support within his own party. The procedure can also be applied to cabinet secretaries and other federal officials, but removing them would likewise require two-thirds of the Senate, and Trump cannot block a removal resulting from impeachment with a presidential pardon; if removal were successful, however, Vice President JD Vance would take his place, so presidential power would still remain in Republican hands.

The Democrats can constrain Trump more directly as well, since with a Senate majority they can block the confirmation of new cabinet secretaries, ambassadors and federal judges, including the filling of any Supreme Court vacancy that might open up. This does not affect the terms of judges already in office, but Trump's future nominees would need the consent of the opposition majority, while in the House the Democrats will decide which proposals come up for a vote, so they could stall the president's next tax, budget or other legislative plans simply by denying them the majority needed to reach the floor.

Pushing through their own agenda, however, requires more than that. Trump can veto laws passed by both chambers, and overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in both as well; moreover, closing debate on most ordinary bills in the Senate usually requires 60 votes. That is why the new majority can block Trump's next law more easily than it can turn its own ideas into law. In financial negotiations, though, the White House will also have something to lose, since running the government, funding new programs and covering military spending will sooner or later require further congressional decisions. Democrats can attach conditions to these, ban the use of funds for certain purposes, or refuse requested additional funding, while a drawn-out dispute also carries the risk of a partial government shutdown.

When it comes to supporting Ukraine, this budgetary power offers the most important leverage. Congress can provide further funding for purchasing American weapons for Ukraine, for replenishing delivered stockpiles, for training, and for other assistance programs, and it can attach deadlines, reporting requirements and rules restricting the reallocation of funds for other purposes. According to a summary by the Congressional Research Service, American aid has so far operated through several different channels, including the transfer of existing U.S. stockpiles and newly manufactured equipment ordered for the Ukrainian army. Deliveries under the two approaches can differ by months or even years, so for any approved amount it also matters exactly which program it is intended for, and whose decision is needed to carry it out — see Hegseth's sabotage, who did not even send Ukraine the already-paid-for Patriot systems.

Even so, the White House still holds important tools, as it can slow implementation through its control of the military and the departments, and in some transfers the law itself grants the president discretion; this does not mean, however, that Trump can set aside Congress's mandatory spending decisions at will. The U.S. Government Accountability Office, the GAO, in 2020 found precisely that withholding military aid to Ukraine was unlawful, because the administration froze already-approved funds for political reasons. This earlier ruling could become an important precedent starting in January, if Democrats push through further aid and find that the administration is not implementing it for political reasons.

There is also a Republican point of connection for taking action in support of Ukraine. On October 19, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, together with Richard Blumenthal and Republican Thom Tillis, held talks with Zelensky, after which she said that the Trump administration is throwing Putin a financial lifeline while not holding him accountable for attacks on Ukrainian civilians. Shaheen specifically criticized the Russian diesel deal and the slowing of Starlink service, and pledged to work in a bipartisan effort to hold the private companies involved accountable. A Democratic majority can give this political weight and a place on committee agendas, and the Pentagon, the State Department and contracted service providers could face questions at hearings about who obstructed the Ukrainian military's operations and why. There may also be room to pass new sanctions against Russia, to monitor the enforcement of existing ones, and to tighten the conditions for presidential waivers, though Trump's veto would have to be reckoned with in these cases as well. According to Reuters' foreign policy analysis, support for Ukraine could be among the few issues on which enough Republicans might side with the Democrats, even to override a veto. The election defeat could widen the room for maneuver of Republicans who want to distance themselves from Trump, but the extent of any split within the party will only become clear in the actual votes.

A similar struggle can be expected over Iran, where Democrats can investigate the justifications for launching the war, the military losses and the costs, and then try to limit military operations in future funding decisions. Congress can also act against hostilities conducted without its authorization through a separate resolution, but Trump can veto that as well, so ending the war would ultimately again require the support of some Republicans or a budget deal acceptable to the White House. For Europe, this means that from January it will have stronger partners in the Washington legislature, but control over diplomacy and the military will remain in Trump's hands, and he may retreat into these areas to escape congressional resistance.

The next two months will therefore matter even before the new majority is sworn in, and from January on, two kinds of conflict can be expected at once. Long institutional battles may unfold over documents, testimony and the implementation of aid, while on the day-to-day financial terms of governing, Trump will have to negotiate with Democrats whose voters expect both relief from cost-of-living troubles and oversight of presidential power. Impeachment could be a consequence of these investigations if a case serious enough comes to light, but for Ukraine, even just having someone forced to justify, by name, with documents and deadlines, before Congress, why weapons deliveries were obstructed and concessions were made to Moscow, could amount to a tangible change.

Anna Karczag